非居民个人外汇管理政策反馈及深度研究

随着我国对外开放的深入化、外资银行准入的全面化、交易方式创新的国际化．现有非居民个人外汇管理模式和手段必将面临新的挑战。本文对新形势下如何提高非居民个人外汇监管水平和服务效率．保持国际收支平衡，维护国家经济金融的安全稳定，进行了深入分析及研究。     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

An Analysis of Trade Patterns and the Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Movements in East Asia

This article investigates the patterns of vertical specialization in trade among China, Japan and Korea, and the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations under a multistage production process. By extending the models of Yi (2003, 2010), we derive two distinct features of vertical specialization and test them using Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) VAR. We find that a positive shock to China’s final good consumption increases the intermediate goods trade between Korea and China, with expanding magnitude over time. In addition, the positive effect of a real exchange rate depreciation on intermediate goods trade is strengthened through the competitiveness-enhancing channel, with this effect being more pronouncing in Korea-China trade than in Korea-Japan trade.     

U.S. Money Supply and China’s Business Cycles

This article models the U.S. dollar as a world currency in a global DSGE framework, and investigates the spillover effects of the U.S. money supply shock on China’s economy. Exchange rate targeting and capital controls in the context of dollar hegemony are investigated. Given a positive U.S. money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady-state levels in the medium term; while for the U.S. there is no inflation pressure. The spillover of liquidity effect exists. Cost-push effects and relative price effects are employed to discuss the transmission mechanism. Under the U.S. money supply shock, a fully liberalizing reform with no capital controls and a floating exchange rate of Renminbi is not the best reform for China.     

Purchasing power parity in ASEAN-5 countries: revisit with cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks

This paper re-examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for a panel of ASEAN-5 countries. The panel unit root and cointegration tests, which incorporate cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, are innovatively used for testing the PPP hypothesis. We could not find evidence that supports the existence of a long-run equilibrium between the relative price ratio and the nominal exchange rate for the whole period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of a cointegrating relationship for the post-crisis period. Our finding implies that a flexible exchange rate regime is suitable for the individual ASEAN countries.     

Endogenous Money,Fiscal Policy,Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Comment on Palley,Tymoigne and Wray

One of the main collective contributions of the various heterodox schools of monetary thought, such as circuit theory, Post Keynesian theory, modern money theory (MMT) and others, has been to stress the importance of the endogeneity of money via bank credit creation. It is necessary to stress the notion of a collective contribution because of the various claims and counter-claims to academic priority made in the literature. The recent exchange between T.I. Palley and E. Tymoigne and L.R. Wray in this journal provides a clear example of this. This response examines the differences between these writers in some detail.     

Unraveling public support for casino gaming: The case of a casino referendum in Penghu

By integrating the social exchange theory (SET) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB), this study unravels the factors associated with residents’ intention to support casino gaming development in Penghu in future referenda. Residents’ attitudes toward casino gaming development in their community were examined in the SET framework while their intention to support such development was investigated in the TPB framework. Despite that partisan difference did not have a significant interaction with TPB variables, past behavior exerted moderating effects determining residents’ intention to support casino gaming development through two TPB variables: subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Implications are provided.

Abbreviations: ATTU: attitude; DPP: Democratic Progress Party; ECOI: perceived economic impact; ENVI: perceived environmental impact; INT: intention to support casino gaming development in future referenda; KMT: Kuomingtang; PBC: perceived behavioral control; PPB: perceived personal benefit; SET: social exchange theory; SN: subjective norms; SOCI: perceived social impact; TPB: theory of planned behavior     

The Effects of Productivity Shocks,Financial Shocks,and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises

What kind of shock affects exchange rate dynamics? How much of an effect does the monetary policy have on exchange rates? To answer these questions empirically based on the currency crisis model, I use panel data on 51 emerging countries from 1980 to 2011, identify shocks, and apply instrumental variable methods. I found that both productivity shocks and shocks to a country’s risk premium affect exchange rates and a 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency. I further apply this method to Asian and Latin-American crises.     

Why do companies transfer the trading compartment of their common stocks

We analyze the motives and determinants of voluntarily stock exchange section switching on the NYSE Euronext. By strategically deciding trading-section transfer when it is beneficial, managers expect to reduce their liquidity and invisibility costs, cost of capital, or their listing costs. We show that managers decide to change the trading compartment of their common stocks based on various factors including firm's size, liquidity level, debt ratio, and expected growth opportunities. Firms that move voluntarily from a less or non regulated compartments to a more regulated one are likely to have transferred to increase their credibility, improve their stocks’ liquidity, re-balance their leverage, and to finance their growth opportunities. Whereas those that move their common stocks toward a less-regulated compartments do it mainly for costs saving reasons.     

International spillovers of China's structural reforms

This paper sheds light on the international spillovers of China's reforms in upgrading industrial capabilities, liberalizing capital account, internationalizing the renminbi, and transition to flexible exchange rates. Drawing on two-country New Keynesian model of endogenous entry and portfolio adjustment, we find that China's industrial upgrading that peddles on yuan appreciation lifts all boats through global production network irrespective of capital account convertibility, degree of renminbi internationalization, and exchange rate reform. Feasibility of appreciation-driven upgrading is called into question, however, when renminbi reform and capital account liberalization go in parallel. We also show that international spillovers disappear once renminbi internationalization is associated with liberalized capital account and flexible renminbi exchange rates.